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Global Equilibrium Expected Returns 63 yen investor of dollar returns. The Siegel's paradox contribution


to expected returns on the dollar is exactly this variance, so it makes sense that the contribution to expected excess returns of hedged U.S. equity from a yen perspective is this coefficient times the variance, which is simply the above-mentioned covariance. This covariance effect implies that the following two relationships hold: A = A + Oxu = A ~ x<y {6.9) Aj=A+0xj=^J-xj (6.10) We have now seen that there is a set of equations relating expected excess returns from a yen perspective to the expected returns from a dollar perspective (and, of course, vice versa). We can search over either the dollar-based or the yen-based expected excess returns, and the other set will be determined. Let us now consider a simple example. The following inputs allow us to solve for a simple two-country "universal hedging" equilibrium: U.S. market cap = 80 Japan market cap = 20 U.S. wealth = 80 Japan wealth = 20 U.S. risk aversion = Japan risk aversion = 2 U.S. equity volatility =15% Japan equity volatility = 17% Correlation between U.S. and Japan equity = .5 Dollar/yen volatility = 10% Correlation between U.S. equity and yen = .06 Correlation between Japan equity and yen = .1 Given these inputs, the covariance matrix for a U.S. investor is as shown in Table 6.1. The covariance matrix for a Japanese investor is only slightly different (see Table 6.2); the covariances between equity returns and the foreign currency have the opposite sign. If U.S. equity returns are positively correlated with returns on TABLE G.1 Covariance Matrix for a U.S. Investor U.S. Equity Japan Equity Yen U.S. equity .0225 .0128 .0009 Japan equity .0128 .0289 .0017 Yen .0009 .0017 .0100